Elections 2014: Spectacular Victory by Narendra Modi led-BJP

May 16, 2014 will be a date to remember. As the longest election, spread over 9 phases, came to end, it swept away, UPA govt, which presided over a decade of decay.

This was also the day when several new records were created –

• BJP won absolute majority in Lok Sabha on its own, something even the most staunch supporters of BJP never expected

• Congress reduced to 44 seats, its lowest ever tally. As it stands now, Cong will find it difficult even to secure the post of Leader of Opposition

• BSP & DMK were totally wiped off in the election – ZERO seats!

• 5 UTs - Andaman & Nicobar, Chandigarh, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagra Haveli, Delhi, & 6 states - Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand were painted 100% saffron. All the seats were won by BJP. Puducherry & Nagaland were also whitewashed by NDA partners

• As Modi predicted all along, Congress did not even open its account in 8 states and didn’t cross double digits even in one state

• In UP, it was extremely surreal – NDA won 73 off the 80 seats. BJP by itself won 71 and alliance partner Apna Dal won 2. The only 7 seats that NDA lost were the ones where Gandhi & Yadav parivar members were contesting.  I think what must have happened is, sensing defeat; the family run parties put their entire focus on these seats.   

I’ll be posting a few blogs analysing the election performance of BJP and key opponents. The plan is also to dig deep into some key states, esp the one’s which resisted Modi wave onslaught – Kerala, TN, Orissa & West Bengal. In this blog post, I look at the national picture. We’ll see how a huge number of new voters ensured BJP’s victory.

We start with the summary, the final tally of seats looks like this –

336 seats is just 26 seats short of 2/3 majority in Lok Sabha. Which means, NDA, with support of AIADMK or BJD, can clear the constitutional amendment bills which require 2/3^rd majority.  

Analysis of BJP’s performance

A total of 55 crores voters exercised their right in this election. Voting turnout was 66.5%. Both of these figures are the highest ever in modern India’s electoral history.

13 crore new voters added this year, is the higher in terms of absolute addition or percentage addition –

BJP’s own voters increased 2.2X from 7.8 Crores in 2009 to 17 Crores this year. At 31.4% vote share, this is by far the best performance by BJP since its birth.

It’s the huge amount of new voters, who are to be credited for BJPs victory. Though BJP got 9.3 crore new voters, Congress lost only 1.22 crores between 2009 and 2014. So, it’s fair to assume that the bulk of BJP’s new voters were the youth, who were also the first time voters.

BJP fielded 428 candidates in this election and 66% of them won – again a record for BJP. The previous highest was 54% in 1999.

In short, this election has been historic in every term for BJP. After a record breaking & most innovative campaign led by Modi, the results have been equally record-breaking. 

In the next set of blog, I'll post my analysis of Kerala result, where BJP has seen a huge surge in vote share - from 6% to 10.4%, but still didnt manage to win any seat. Kerala is one state, where politics of appeasement is reaching its zenith and has the potential to be the next J&K/Assam. The only party, which can stop that from happening is BJP. So its important, not just for BJP, but also for the citizens, that BJP starts takes Kerala seriously.

<Added on 19th May> Read the Kerala analysis here --> http://politicaldharma.blogspot.com/2014/05/bjp-performance-in-kerala.html