BJP Performance in Kerala

BJP has, yet again, not managed to win any seat in Kerala. But LS 2014 election performance has given at least something to cheer for the party. It has put up a far better performance this year, compared to previous elections.

With 18.5 Lakh votes across the state & 10.3% vote share, BJP is firmly at #3 position in the state, while there's no credible #4. However, the challenge is that the Top 2 of Kerala politics - Cong led United Democratic Front and CPM led Left Democratic Front - have such a stranglehold on the Kerala politics, that no other party or alliance has ever held power in Kerala.

Kerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats. UDF secured 12 and LDF secured 8. Both alliances have 40%+ vote share & a significant lead over BJP. The following pie-chart shows the breakup of Kerala vote share - 

  
Total votes cast in 2014 was 1.8 Crores. BJP could secure only about 18 lakhs off those. If we look at the cloud chart of votes, we realize that there's still a long long way for BJP to be in contention 

The chart above is the number (lakhs) of votes secured by the major alliances in the elections. The votes for LDF includes the 4 Independents supported by them (2 of whom won). 

However, if we look at specific constituencies, things look much better for BJP -
1. in TVM, BJP for 32.3% vote share. (UDF got 34.1%)
2. 9 Constituencies, incl TVM, saw vote share of >10% for BJP
3. In 6 seats, BJP got more than 1L votes, another 5 saw > 80k votes

If we build could charts for BJP's top 3 constituencies - Thiruvanthapuram, Kasargod and Pathanamthitta - we can see that BJP's situation is not so hopeless. With a little more hardwork and clever social engineering, BJP can hope to win Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in the coming elections. 

Cloud chart for Thiruvanthapuram (Votes in thousands) - where BJP's O Rajagopal finished second behind Shashi Tharoor and lost by just 16k votes.  

Cloud chart for Kasargod - a district bordering coastal Karnataka, which is one of BJP's strongest bases. CPM won from here, but by a very small margin. BJP secured almost 1.75 lakh votes from here, which is 40% jump over 2009

 

Pathanamthitta, in central Kerala, is the district which houses Sabarimala, which attracts the second highest number of pilgrims, after the Tirupati temple. BJP voters increase by 2.5X from ~50k to 1.4 Lakhs. If Modi govt is able to improve facilities at the Sabarimala temple, which are virtually non-existent, BJP could very well win this seat.

 

If we look at history, BJP has not really had a smooth ride in the state. It has suffered from lack of focus, resources and talent. After a slow build-up from its birth, BJP crossed double digit vote share in 2004, but only to see a sharp drop in 2009. This year, Modi focussed on Kerala, attempted to reach out to the local population through a mix of electoral rallies and sharing public stage with prominent Kerala cultural and spiritual leaders. 

A 70% increase in vote share from  6.3% to 10.5% is no mean achievement. And if Modi's victory speech in New Delhi is anything to go by, he has no plan to give up on Kerala and may go in with renewed focus on Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Kerala needs change and the electorate is signalling that they are not averse to BJP. Its upto the party to seize the initiative and work hard. I'm hoping to see a BJP CM in Kerala in 2026 Assembly elections!